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Freeze for balance: Oil outlook 2017
2nd World Congress on Petroleum and Refinery
June 01-03, 2017 Osaka, Japan

Abhishek Deshpande

Natixis, France

Posters & Accepted Abstracts: J Pet Environ Biotechnol


Oil markets have experienced a tumultuous last 24 months. Oil price volatility has been exacerbated by the financial markets and unprecedented outages in the first half of 2016. At a fundamental level, markets had started to rebalance very rapidly earlier this year on the back of stronger growth in global demand and unprecedented supply outages, leading to even small withdrawals. However since the start of third quarter, the pace of physical market rebalancing has slowed due to changes in the supply-demand dynamics. Additionally in the last 12 months, oil prices have been driven significantly by non-fundamentals factors such as speculative positions and US dollar moves. We believe physical balances in the near term will remain sensitive to oil price recovery and vice versa. The time required for full and sustainable rebalancing of the markets will depend significantly on how various factors including OPEC strategy, CAPEX cuts, demand for oil products and global growth pan out in the near term. Without an OPEC freeze, the rebalancing of the markets in the near term will depend on supply outages not returning and growth in demand (for consumption and strategic reserves) remaining strong.

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